Who is statistically most likely to die in the final season of "Game of Thrones" that starts in the night from Sunday to Monday on OCS? Two French demographers have examined the question. What results have they achieved?
While the broadcast of the last season of Game of Thrones is about to start Sunday on HBO and simultaneously on OCS, a mystery, bigger than the others, hovers. Who will die? And above all, is there a way to predict it?
Two French demographers and statisticians, Romane Beaufort and Lucas Melissent, took a long look at the issue. After working for a year on the series, they present a detailed study on demography in the world of Westeros, which can be found in its entirety on their site DemoGoT.
One of the different infographics they have done shows their findings about mortality and which characters are most likely to die.
How and when do the characters die?
During the first seven seasons, 205 characters died out of the 398 named, more than half. Of these 205 dead characters, the overwhelming majority was murdered. On the third step of the podium, the most common ways of dying, are death by ranged weapon (8%). Then, we count 11% of burned alive and finally, one realizes that 42% died by sharp weapon.
The three most deadly seasons of the series are season 6 (51 dead), season 2 (39 dead) and season 4 (32 dead). It is especially noted that a third of the dead are in the last ten minutes of an episode. This was for example the case of Ned Stark, Robb and Catelyn Stark, Joffrey Baratheon or Oberyn Martell.
Which character was the deadliest?
In Game of Thrones, everyone goes for his sword, his poison or his crossbow. However, some are stronger than others, and the most lethal character in the series is none other than ... Drogon the dragon, with about 150 dead to his credit. Jon Snow, with his 29 victims, is far behind, followed by Ver Gris (23 dead).
On the other hand, if only the named characters are considered among the dead, then Jon Snow and Arya Stark take the lead of the tie, with 11 dead. Then we find Le Limier (8 dead), then Daenerys Targaryen and Ramsay Bolton (each 7 dead).
In which cases is it more likely to die?
According to the study by Romane Beaufort and Lucas Melissent, some conditions are more favorable than others to death. Facing death, being a woman is undeniably an asset, since 54% of male characters are dead, against "only" 38% of female characters. Being noble, on the contrary, is a disadvantage, as only 37% of lords or heirs are still alive, compared to 68% among commoners. Finally, we suspected, but if we do not want to die, it is better not to go to battle (63% of fighters died while 68% of non-combatants are still alive).
Then, if we pay attention to the question of allegiance, we find that the Lannisters have a higher mortality rate than the Stark (57% against 53%), who themselves have a higher mortality rate. than the Targaryen ("only" 48%).
If we can never really consider ourselves immune to the great mower, we still note that if a character is present in more than 30 episodes of the series, he is 250 times less likely to pass the weapon to the left .
So who is most likely to die in season 8?
Both demographers were also interested in the probabilities of dying. To perform their calculations, they took into account multiple data: "Thanks to the database, the statistical model knows two things: if the characters are still alive or not at the end of the first seven seasons and then he knows all the characteristics of the characters, "says Lucas Melissent. "He can then identify the characteristics that expose them to death or protect them, which allows us to draw a true portrait of the characters who die, and then compares the characters still alive to the portrait-robot: the more character looks like the realized robotic portrait, the higher the likelihood of death. "
© DemoGoT / Romane Beaufort / Lucas Melissent
Among the central characters of the series still alive, it is Euron Greyjoy who has the highest probability of dying, while the chances for Brienne to die are almost zero.
Among Stark siblings, Sansa has the highest risk of dying (11.6%), followed by Arya (5.1%) and Bran (4.7%). Among the Lannisters, we note that Cersei has a 11.2% risk of passing, against 1.2% for Tyrion and 0.6% only for Jaime. Targaryen side, Daenerys is in target with 16.8% chance of dying against 1.6% for Jon Snow.
"Warning, however," admits Lucas Melissent, "the probabilities calculated from the first seven seasons are applicable to the final season provided that the logic of death of the characters remain unchanged.But for this season, writers can afford more freedom to kill previously protected characters, so the logic can change but the methodology remains strong. " See you on May 20, after the broadcast of the final, to check the reliability of statistics ...